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ETH

HOLD
Generated about 20 hours ago (November 21, 2025 at 02:00 PM)

Confidence Score

73.0%
High Confidence

Signal Analysis

Type: ⚪ Neutral
Action: HOLD
Asset: ETH

Price Targets

7 Day
$2,650
▼ 3.31% from current
30 Day
$2,550
▼ 6.96% from current
90 Day
$2,850
▲ 3.99% from current

Detailed Reasoning

ETH is in a clear short‑term downtrend: price is below the 12/26/50/200 EMAs, confirming bearish structure, and the 24h drawdown of ~8.7% shows strong recent selling. RSI at ~38 is bearish but not yet oversold (<30), suggesting there may still be downside room before a high‑probability mean‑reversion setup. MACD remains negative with the line below the signal and only a very small histogram, indicating bearish momentum is still present and no convincing bullish crossover yet. Price is trading just under the Bollinger middle band and closer to the lower band, showing mild downside pressure within the bands but not an extreme deviation that would favor an aggressive contrarian long. Volume is roughly in line with the 20‑period average (1.07x), so the selloff is orderly rather than capitulatory, reducing the case for an immediate reversal. With ATR around $62, volatility is moderate; downside probes toward the lower band (~2660) or slightly below are plausible. Risk/reward for fresh longs is not attractive yet, but it is also premature to short aggressively into a maturing downswing. Standing aside or maintaining existing, tightly risk‑managed positions is prudent until clearer confirmation appears.

Key Factors

1 Price below all key EMAs (12/26/50/200) confirming a short-term bearish trend
2 RSI at ~38 is weak but not oversold, leaving room for further downside before a high-conviction reversal
3 MACD still negative with no clear bullish crossover, indicating bearish momentum is intact

Risk Assessment

Risk is moderate to elevated: ETH is in a downtrend with potential for further drawdown toward or below the lower Bollinger Band and recent swing lows. Key risks include continuation of the broader bearish structure, correlation with BTC downside, and volatility spikes that could accelerate selling. Until either oversold conditions or a clear momentum reversal appear, new entries carry skewed downside risk.

Market Context

Overall market structure for ETH is short-term bearish within a broader corrective phase, trading below the 200 EMA and all shorter EMAs. Price action shows lower highs and lower lows intraday, with rebounds being sold into rather than sustained. The order book shows a heavy ask size at the best offer, hinting at near-term selling pressure. BTC-led sentiment remains important; without a clear BTC recovery, ETH is likely to remain under pressure or consolidate with a bearish bias.

Technical Data

Current Price $2,740.75
24h Change -8.66%
Trend Bearish
RSI 37.98 Neutral-Bearish
Exponential Moving Averages
EMA 12
2,753.07
BELOW
EMA 26
2,815.97
BELOW
EMA 50
2,887.69
BELOW
EMA 200
3,101.23
BELOW
Bollinger Bands
Upper: 2,920.19
Middle: 2,791.39
Lower: 2,662.58